The ITU has published a report
"Measuring the Information Society 2012" — you can download an executive summary (still 36 pages)
here. The report contains some perhaps quite startling conclusions:
- Around 6 billion mobile-cellular subscriptions by the end of 2011
- Almost twice as many mobile-broadband as fixed-broadband subscriptions
- Mobile-broadband penetration is expected to continue growing at double-digit rates over the next few years, reflecting the spread of mobile Internet services
- By end 2011, 2.3 billion people (i.e. one in three) were using the Internet
The six billion cellular subscription figure is really rather impressive, as it's pretty close to the
estimated world population of just over seven billion. That's only going to grow, with India increasing numbers of users, and also as we move from the nascency of machine to machine communications (M2M) into real rollout — as SIMs find their way into cars, fridges, display boards, gas/electricity/parking meters and so on, the number of connections is going to increase rapidly. (From a regulatory point of view, M2M will bring its own challenges, of course, particularly in terms of ensuring that the networks can support the increased data throughput, but, in some ways, are likely to be easier to handle that traditional person-to-person services — how many machines need to be able to call emergency services, for example, or are require protection against unwanted marketing messages?)
The report is well worth perusing, if only to get a better ideal of the scale and scope of communications technology. One area which seems a reasonable omission is any mention of numbers of people using over the top communications services — Skype, Viber, Facebook chat and the like. Whilst the use of traditional services will increase, I'd see the rate of growth of over the top services being even greater, and it's something which both network operators and existing service providers need to consider very carefully if they wish to continue to operate lucratively, and which regulators and policy makers need to bear in mind also.